UPDATE! Star Wars: The Force Awakens Odds-On to be the Highest-Grossing Film of 2015.
Bookmaker William Hill is making a fairly confident bet that Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens is going to be the most profitable film of 2015. See what other movies top the list after the jump…
I’m sure you didn’t see that one coming. Especially after the news that The Force Awakens is the most anticipated movie for 2015. 🙂
From Crunch Sports:
As we head into Awards Season for movies celebrating the best of 2014, bookmakers are looking ahead to what may be making waves this coming year.
With some huge blockbusters due out over the coming 12 months, it is Star Wars that is set to trump the lot with Britain’s biggest bookmaker offering just 1/6 that it takes the most money.
Age Of Ultron is the 4/1 second favourite, ahead of Jurassic World at 8/1.
Surprisingly, Spectre, the new James Bond movie, is just fourth in the betting at 9/1.
While it’s no surprise that the movie will do well, the projection that it can financially do better than the sequel to the third-highest-grossing movie of all time is interesting.
In a previous story we reported that:
“Wall Street analysts at this point aren’t as bullish; last summer, Credit Suisse’s Michael Senn predicted $1.2 billion in box office for “Episode VII. This week, Cowan & Co. projected $1.2 billion and FBR Capital Markets said it would take in $700 million domestically — and net $1 billion overseas.”
There might even be the possibility that the movie could make more money than James Cameron’s Avatar. Disney is bound to make so much money that CEO Bob Iger will laugh his way to the bank for the entirety of 2016.
UPDATE!
Crunch Sports updated their report. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is narrowing the gap:
The seventh movie in the Star Wars series is just 1/4 with the bookmaker to gross the highest amount this year, while Jurassic World and the new James Bond movie, Spectre, are 8/1.
Age of Ultron’s odds have been slashed from an original 5/1 down to 3/1, and has been the biggest mover in the market.
“The second trailer for Age of Ultron has landed and makes the movie look even more exciting than the first one did,” William Hill spokesman Joe Crilly told Crunchsports.com.
Grant has been a fan of Star Wars for as long as he can remember, having seen every movie on the big screen. When he’s not hard at work with his college studies, he keeps himself busy by reporting on all kinds of Star Wars news for SWNN and general movie news on the sister site, Movie News Net. He served as a frequent commentator on SWNN’s The Resistance Broadcast.
Well, it’s still possible that the movie for some reason is really bad and peaple get warned early, so it bombs drasticly…
Then people would watch it to find out how bad…
That is not possible…Ihave forseen it
It cannot be the biggest hit of 2015. It only has 14 days (December 18-31). Yes, those 14 days will be huge but Jurassic and Avenger’s will have months and Months.
I think that as long as the film opens in 2015, all takings will count regardless of whether they are after the new year.
“It cannot be the biggest hit of 2015. It only has 14 days (December 18-31). Yes, those 14 days will be huge but Jurassic and Avenger’s will have months and Months.”
Doesn’t work that way. It is a 2015 movie and anything it makes in it’s run counts as a 2015 movie.
Return of the King opened Dec 17 2003. By the 31st it had made 250M. It’s total domestic gross was 377M and that made it the highest grossing domestic movie of 2015. None of it counted for 2004.
As to the betting line that is to get people to bet and many people will obviously without thinking bet on Star Wars and forget that Avengers 2 is coming out.
It’s not going to get anywhere near Avatar or Titanic and I doubt it will be anywhere near Avengers. The safe bet is around 1B to a high of 1.2B but anything more than that would be a surprise.
I actually think 1.4B – 1.7B is a decently safe bet. $700M domestic is definitely reasonable with 3D prices built in. Most blockbusters these days are 40/60 or 35/65 domestic/international. Star Wars being more American could likely be 45/55 or 50/50. Still would come out to 1.4B.
Though I agree that the 2B+ of Titanic and Avatar seems unlikely. Hope I am wrong.
This movie, like episode I is review proof, guys. The Phantom Menace was not generally loved by most fans but has brought in over a billion dollars worldwide including it’s re-release in 2012 and is now the top grossing Star Wars film all time. Combine the facts that Hammil, fisher and ford are back along with the outrageous 3D ticket prices and, well, You get it. We are easily looking at a $600-700 million dollar film in North America. Add the fact that it’s being released for the christmas season and won’t have to contend with any summer blockbusters. This movie is ALREADY the top grossing Star Wars film of all time, no doubt.
I’m just waiting to see if it’s snubbed at oscar season for the technical awards like the prequels. Episode III did’nt even get an oscar nomination for effects but for makeup??? Really?? Palpatines silly “butt forehead” makeup? That was a snub on purpose.
This movie will barely claim 2015 status due to its late release. I think many people are forgetting the fact that it arrives at the tail end of the year.
That being said, I was kind of put off by Lupita N’s introduction at the Golden Globes as “from the upcoming Star Wars: The Force Awakens”……instead of 12 Years…what we know her from (and she won an Oscar for.) I just thought that was a really cheap shot at promotion.
And then Harrison comes out and they say “from the upcoming…Random Movie.” Go figure.
TFA will be a box office smash simply because every SW fan will see it atleast 1 time. But what breaks records is repeat business and casual fans. Episode I had that luxury because many fans weren’t down on SW in 1999, so regardless of the reviews they went and saw it multiple times.
TFA will not have that luxury, as many of my friends are still on the fence after the PT debacle. In the end, they will see it, but if it gets bad reviews and the fans don’t like it, then they wont go back. In fact, many of them will walk away from SW altogether.
This HAS to be a great movie to break any records. And it HAS to be very good to get them back for Episodes 8 & 9. People have been fooled too many times to keep coming back, this is SW last chance for many fans.
“TFA will not have that luxury, as many of my friends are still on the fence after the PT debacle. In the end, they will see it, but if it gets bad reviews and the fans don’t like it, then they wont go back. In fact, many of them will walk away from SW altogether.”
Let’s hope they will. Forever. Then the rest of the audience that made the PT an astonishing success and will likely do the same for the ST if it’s as good as the first 6 Star Wars films were.
Oh Ryan, your ignorance continues to astound me.
“Oh Ryan, your ignorance continues to astound me.”
Not anywhere near as much as the people who want to deny the success of the prequels astounds me.
It’s all right there to see in the open but the denials of it’s success, impact on movies and the massive practical effects fest it was in addition to CGI is also denied over and over again.
You read on sites how “damaged” the Star Wars brand was by the PT and yet this damage doesn’t show itself anywhere but in the minds of the relative few who despise the PT.
Those are the same people who will tell you how “terrible and horrible and awful the PT is” then get their arguments all confused.
Either the PT sells on all platforms ONLY because of the brand of Star Wars and not the movies themselves. So the brand is not damaged at all.
Then they turn around and say how badly the brand has been hurt by the PT!
YOU CAN’T HAVE BOTH. They can’t damage the brand and be that successful which indicates that the brand isn’t hurt at all.
IF IT’S not about just the brand then the movies are successful because of the movies first and Star Wars second.
Like you can totally separate them anyway.
Starwars last chance?!
It’s the most popular sci-fi franchise ever..It runs for 37 years, non stop. Books, movies, toys, comics, clothing, tooth brushes, cartoons…It’s the only one in it’s genre, it doesn’t have a little dent in it’s imago, so how can you talk about a last chance? THe ranters are in fact the biggest fans, they know literally every intricate details about everything, and then they say they don’t like it..So funny…
so so true
Who are you talking about the people on the internet who make up about 1% of the SW fanbase? LOL.
All of my friends who are SW fans, I am the only one who posts on a message board, so I think you are WAY overstating the fandom on the internet. Whether they gushers, bashers, etc, they are NOT the majority of fans.
I can say among my friends who have been SW fans since 1977, none of them are truly hyped for this movie. Now as I said, they will see it because its in our DNA, but the main reason they aren’t hyped is because they were letdown by the PT, and they are only seeing this becuase Luke, Leia, and Han have gotten them curious about this new trilogy. If it stinks or is average, I guarantee they don’t even bother with Episodes 8 & 9.
Remember we talking about breaking box office records, and no doubt SW will always make money, to break box office records, you have to have EVERYONE on board. AOTC didn’t even finish 1st in boxoffice in 2002, because alot of fans were burned by TPM, and the reviews for AOTC didn’t help much either.
Id say 10%
And in statistics we call those things a biased sample.
I been a fan since 77′ and trust me, I am hype… dunno where u came from but all the dudes who have been a fan since 77 that I know are all pretty darn excited for this movie.
Yes, and Starwars can do easily without a few not amused fans..I for one am a true fan, I know everything and I love it!!
even my friends who said they dont like star wars are going to see it
🙂
You have no friends 🙁
Everyone will see it, regardless of the pt debacle, because it will be irresistible. Only a small few who wont skew the box office results will stay home and bicker, but 99.9% of the fans will see it on opening weekend.
thanks obama
Avatar, the biggest grossing movie of all time!! Seriously!??! What the hell was the attraction? It was just basically last of the mohicans in space with a few yes album covers for backdrop.
Yes, Avatar, the highest grossing movie of all time, *by a very long shot*. Where were you?
Titanic and Avatar, hmmm, yes, both movies I have watched, Titanic vomitous, Avatar, okay, but I have absolutely no desire to see either one of them ever again… that is where films like Star Wars (OT) differ, I can watch them over and over again and always enjoy…
If it is in 3D I won’t be seeing it.
I have the patience to just wait for it in stores after holidays are over.
It will be in both formats. I will be seeing the 2D at midnight. I must have the same opening night expierience as all the rest.
Good to know ,I thought it was only going to be 3D.
Avatar and The avengers were nothing more than pure money making ventures and both were doo doo. The reason They made so much is because of the $18 dollar 3D ticket prices, which TFA will have as well. You will have MANY causual movie fans and casual Star Wars fans that will see it at least once, plus Nothing else to really contend with it from Dec to spring 2016. Many fans no matter what the quality of it will see it more than once, if just to see Luke and the gang again. Most of you phantom menace haters that said you saw it only once are just straight up lying!!! I am such a Star Wars expert I could teach a class on it and I tell you all, this first film, like Menace is review proof! And in actuality if most of you look back Menace wasn’t reviewed that badly. The fans dissapointment over it is what hurt clones and Sith. Bad reviews will not hurt this film, but they will hurt the the next two after that. There has NEVER been a movie that was more of a sure bet when it comes to money making like this. I really dont care if it rakes in the dough or is inferior to the other 6 films. Its a new chapter and I’m very stoked to return to that galaxy far, far away to see Luke, Han, chewie and the rest of the gang once again. You cannot expect every single film to be on par with A New Hope. Every huge film series has its duds. Only about half the bond films are worth a damn, Harry potter had a few duds, the Hobbit films are not on par with the LOTR trilogy, Rocky, Batman, superman, spiderman, Jurassic park have all had at least one miserable failure in their respective film series. Who cares guys, Nobody EVER thought this day would come. Luke is returning!!! This is going to be a better time for Star Wars than the last trilogy, without a doubt. We all should be very, very thankful for this and quit whining like spoiled brats who’s mommy wouldnt buy them the IG-88 figure they wanted so badly back in 1980 lol
This^
The only thing that I’m worried about is wheter or not John Williams will make it through all 3, and if he can ignite energy back into the music. The Phantom Menace score was fantastic and was the high point of the film. Clones and sith’s scores seemed to be a bit on the lazy side. John needs to seriously go back over The New Hope score and take notes. I’m sure that you hardcore fans noticed that the opening theme for episodes II and III were not new recordings, but simply the phantom menaces crawl music. He didnt do that with the original 3. He also didn’t re-record the themes from TPM that we heard in II and III but rather, used the existing cuts. Another thing he didnt do with the originals and thats why we havent gotten a full, complete soundtrack for II and III like we did with the other 4. Now, thats laziness. Get it together John!!!
Yeah well he probably watched final cut of TPM then thought…pffft..screw this for the next two…why put your heart and sole into to something 2nd rate…just do a professional job and take the money.
Artistic folks will always go above & beyond if it’s a labour of love and I think we’ll get that from JW again on EP VII.
If team JJ knock this sucker out of the park then I am sure he’ll return to EP VIII with the same level of passion and commitment.
Nah, that’s an opinion, not his laziness. I personally LOVE the score for episode III. Reusing content in a triology is normal, and why would he even bother rerecord the same track just because it’s for another movie? If it’s the same track it’s no point in recording it again. That woul only mean a bigger chance that something gets screwed up (during the recording).
Just to clarify…If you take inflation into account TPM is nowhere near the box office of ANH.
Right you are, but then again with inflation Gone With The Wind is the all time king.
I think $1.5 billion is almost guaranteed $550 mill domestic $950 mill from the rest , I think $450 mill would be the bare minimum domestic…
I think peoples figures are wrong…
TFA first weekend/week will make $400-$700 million alone north America.
How? Let’s put the facts…
1.This is not a prequel
2.This has the big three all in it again
3.George Lucas didn’t write it
4.It was filmed similar how the OT was
5.It has a LARGE fan base
6.2D and 3D ticket prices
7.Christmas holiday crowd
Over 900 million non American
China market, they now watch our films, which boost the box office records.
This will easy be a $2 billion movie.
Old fans and new fans want to know what happened to Luke Han and Liea after all this time etc etc. Also people will see this more then once!
I’m obviously pumped for this film! My birthday is in late October. Between that and Christmas, I’m going to ask for a bunch of gift cards to my favorite movie theater so I can enjoy The Force Awakens from December through March. Up to 25 times or so.
I love the excited crowd experience! xD
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